Calculated odds
Plinko: probability of each bucket and RTP calculation
One ball, rows of pegs, a landing bucket: the probability of each bucket can be calculated exactly. Add your game’s payout table to get its real RTP.
In short
With 16 rows, the ball lands in the centre bucket 19.6% of the time: the middle buckets are by far the most frequent.
Each edge bucket is reached only once in 65,536 on average (0.0015%).
Enter your Plinko game’s payout table to calculate its real RTP.
Every figure is calculated by DropCashCasino from the rules of the game; none is copied.
Probability of each bucket (16 rows)
| Bucket | Probability | 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.0015% | 65,536 |
| 1 | 0.0244% | 4,096 |
| 2 | 0.18% | 546 |
| 3 | 0.85% | 117 |
| 4 | 2.78% | 36 |
| 5 | 6.67% | 15 |
| 6 | 12.22% | 8.2 |
| 7 | 17.46% | 5.7 |
| 8 | 19.64% | 5.1 |
| 9 | 17.46% | 5.7 |
| 10 | 12.22% | 8.2 |
| 11 | 6.67% | 15 |
| 12 | 2.78% | 36 |
| 13 | 0.85% | 117 |
| 14 | 0.18% | 546 |
| 15 | 0.0244% | 4,096 |
| 16 | 0.0015% | 65,536 |
Model: at each row, the ball goes left or right with equal probability. Buckets are numbered from 0 (left edge) to 16 (right edge).
A binomial distribution
At each row, the ball bounces left or right with the same probability. To end up in bucket k after n rows, it has to go right k times: there are C(n, k) possible paths out of 2^n in total. The centre buckets therefore receive most of the balls and the edges are extremely rare: with 16 rows, each edge bucket is reached only once in 65,536 on average.
How the RTP is calculated
The RTP is the sum, bucket by bucket, of the probability of landing in the bucket multiplied by its multiplier. The big multipliers at the edges weigh very little, since those buckets are almost never reached: it is the central buckets, often below x1, that make up most of the RTP.
Several risk levels
When a Plinko game offers several risk levels, each has its own payout table: the value shifts from the central buckets towards the edges. The RTP can stay the same while the results become much more uneven. Enter the table of the level you have chosen to check its RTP.
Play responsibly
Balls drop with a single click and losses pile up quickly. Set a budget and a time limit before you play. If gambling is no longer fun, see the responsible gambling page: it lists helplines for each country.
