Calculated odds
Baccarat odds: Banker, Player or Tie
Every possible deal from an 8- or 6-deck shoe, calculated one by one: the probability of each outcome, what each bet costs and the drawing rules.
In short
Betting on Banker costs the least: a house edge of 1.06%, 5% commission included (8-deck shoe).
Player: 1.24%. Tie paid 8 to 1: 14.36%; paid 9 to 1: 4.84%.
On a single hand: Banker wins 45.86% of the time, Player 44.62%, and a tie comes up 9.52% of the time.
Every figure is calculated by DropCashCasino from the rules of the game; none is copied.
Probabilities and house edge
| Outcome of a hand | 8 decks | 6 decks |
|---|---|---|
| Banker wins | 45.8597% | 45.8653% |
| Player wins | 44.6247% | 44.6279% |
| Tie | 9.5156% | 9.5069% |
| House edge | ||
| Bet on Banker (5% commission) | 1.0579% | 1.0558% |
| Bet on Player | 1.2351% | 1.2374% |
| Bet on a tie paid 8 to 1 | 14.3596% | 14.4382% |
| Bet on a tie paid 9 to 1 | 4.8440% | 4.9313% |
Exact calculation: every possible deal from the shoe, without replacement, with the fixed third-card rules. A tie returns the bets on Banker and on Player.
When a third card is drawn
- If Player or Banker totals 8 or 9 with two cards (a “natural”), nobody draws.
- Player draws a third card on a total of 0 to 5 and stands on 6 or 7.
- If Player stood, Banker draws on a total of 0 to 5 and stands on 6 or 7.
- If Player drew, Banker’s action depends on Banker’s own total and on Player’s third card (table below).
| Banker total | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws |
| 1 | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws |
| 2 | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws |
| 3 | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | stands | draws |
| 4 | stands | stands | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | draws | stands | stands |
| 5 | stands | stands | stands | stands | draws | draws | draws | draws | stands | stands |
| 6 | stands | stands | stands | stands | stands | stands | draws | draws | stands | stands |
| 7 | stands | stands | stands | stands | stands | stands | stands | stands | stands | stands |
D: Banker draws; S: Banker stands. Columns: value of Player’s third card (face cards and 10 count as 0).
Why Banker pays a commission
The drawing rules slightly favour Banker, which acts after Player and decides knowing Player’s third card. Without a commission, betting on Banker would pay off on average. The 5% commission taken from its winnings tips the balance: the house edge is then about 1.06% on Banker, against 1.24% on Player.
The tie: the most expensive bet
A tie comes up roughly once in ten and a half hands. Paid 8 to 1, it leaves the house with more than 14% of every bet; paid 9 to 1, a little under 5%. In both cases it costs far more than bets on Banker or on Player.
No decisions to make
In punto banco, cards are drawn according to a fixed table: you only choose your bet. No strategy changes the probabilities, and past streaks of results say nothing about the next hand. The scoreboards shown at some tables only serve to follow the game.
Play responsibly
Baccarat is played fast: at dozens of hands an hour, even a small house edge ends up weighing on your balance. Set a budget and a time limit before you play. If gambling is no longer fun, see the responsible gambling page: it lists helplines for each country.
