Calculated odds
Crash games: probability of reaching each multiplier
A “provably fair” crash game publishes the rule that sets the crash point. From the stated RTP, here is the probability of reaching each multiplier and what it costs.
In short
With an RTP of 97.0%, the probability of reaching a multiplier m is RTP ÷ m: 48.5% for x2, 9.7% for x10, 0.97% for x100.
Whatever cash-out multiplier you choose, the average loss stays the same: 3.0% of every bet.
At x2: winning 5 times in a row happens 2.7% of the time, losing 5 times in a row 3.6% of the time.
Every figure is calculated by DropCashCasino from the rules of the game; none is copied.
Probability of reaching each multiplier (RTP of 97.0%)
| Cash-out multiplier | Probability | 1 in | 10 losses in a row |
|---|---|---|---|
| x1.1 | 88.2% | 1.1 | 0.0% |
| x1.5 | 64.7% | 1.5 | 0.0% |
| x2.0 | 48.5% | 2.1 | 0.1% |
| x3.0 | 32.3% | 3.1 | 2.0% |
| x5.0 | 19.4% | 5.2 | 11.6% |
| x10 | 9.7% | 10 | 36.0% |
| x20 | 4.8% | 21 | 60.8% |
| x50 | 1.9% | 52 | 82.2% |
| x100 | 0.970% | 103 | 90.7% |
| x1,000 | 0.097% | 1,031 | 99.0% |
Model of “provably fair” crash games: a round goes past multiplier m with a probability of RTP ÷ m. Check in the game rules that it follows this model. House edge: 3.0%, whatever the multiplier.
The crash game model
In a crash game, a multiplier climbs until a randomly drawn crash point; you have to cash out before it. In the model published by “provably fair” games, the probability that the round goes past multiplier m is RTP ÷ m. With a 97% RTP, x2 is reached 48.5% of the time and x10 only 9.7% of the time.
Why the multiplier you choose does not change the average loss
Aiming for x2 wins often but a little; aiming for x100 wins rarely but a lot. On average, the two come to the same thing: the bet is multiplied by m with a probability of RTP ÷ m, which gives an average return equal to the RTP. Only the frequency of wins and the gap between sessions change.
What “provably fair” proves
A “provably fair” game publishes the hash of a secret seed before the round, then reveals that seed: anyone can recalculate the result and check that it was not altered during the round. This proves the fairness of the draw, not the absence of an edge for the house: the RTP remains below 100%.
Play responsibly
Rounds follow one another in a few seconds, which speeds up losses. Set a budget and a time limit before you play, and do not try to “win it back” after a losing streak. If gambling is no longer fun, see the responsible gambling page: it lists helplines for each country.
